Dubai hospitality has had a hard year. After the conflict with Iran began in late February, hotel occupancy in the city fell to 36% in March, and some hotels dropped to single digits (The National). Recovery is under way. August brought about 869,000 international overnight visitors, the best month since February, and occupancy climbed back to 66% (Dubai Media Office).

Even so, the city had 6.97 million international visitors in the first eight months of the year, against 19.59 million for the whole of 2025 (The National).

Over the same period, the people who live here kept arriving. Dubai’s population reached 4.580 million at the end of 2025, up about 332,000 in a year (Digital Dubai). The National reports that about 200,000 more residents have been added this year, taking the total to about 4.7 million.

I founded TheLoyaltyCo, and I live and work in Dubai. My view is simple. In a year like this, the guests who live within a short drive of your venue matter more than ever.

Residents and tourists want different things

A visitor on a five night trip might come to your restaurant once. What matters to them is a good first experience and maybe a reason to tell friends. A points balance means almost nothing to them, because they will not be back to spend it.

A resident is a different guest. They might come every week, bring colleagues on a Tuesday and family at the weekend, and book your venue for a birthday. Over a year, one good resident regular can be worth more than dozens of one-time visitors. A loyalty programme is built for exactly that kind of guest.

Our own numbers back this up. In Mindset, the programme we run for AlphaMind Group’s venues, 76% of member visits so far have come from UAE residents. Residents are not a side audience for a loyalty scheme here. They are most of it.

The daytime city is bigger than the census

There is a second group worth thinking about. Digital Dubai estimates that on average 6.392 million people are in the emirate during peak daytime hours. That includes more than 1.812 million people who are here temporarily, mostly for work or tourism (Digital Dubai).

Some of those people live in Sharjah or Ajman and work in Dubai. Some are regular business visitors. For a restaurant in Business Bay or DIFC, they behave much more like residents than tourists. They come back, often at lunch, often midweek.

What a resident-first programme looks like

Reward frequency, not just spend. Residents can come often, so give them a reason to come back within a few weeks. A reward earned on the third visit in a month does more than a large points balance that takes a year to build.

Make quiet times worth it. Locals are the guests who can fill a Monday or the summer months. Member-only offers on slower days, and summer programmes for people who stay in the city, put your reward budget where it changes behaviour.

Recognise people by name. A resident who has been in ten times should not be treated like a first-time visitor. Make sure your hosts and managers can see who is walking in, when they last came and what they usually order.

Keep tourists simple. You still want visitors to join. Give them something useful on the day, like a welcome drink or a dessert, and capture their details properly so you can invite them back next time they are in the city.

Look at your data by guest type. If your programme can tell residents from visitors, report on them separately. Visit frequency, spend and lapse rates will look very different, and so should your plans for each.

Looking ahead

Tourism in Dubai will come back. The city has done it before, and the August numbers point the right way. When it does, the venues in the best position will be the ones that spent this year getting to know the people who live here.

If you want to talk about building a programme around your resident guests, get in touch with us at TheLoyaltyCo.

Adam Purslow Founder, TheLoyaltyCo